Same-Sex Marriage Ban is Losing, State Pollsters Say

Ventura County Star

Aug. 28--Likely voters in California would soundly reject a ballot measure to ban marriage between same-sex couples if the election were held today, a Public Policy Institute of California poll finds.

Through telephone surveys of 2,001 California adults, the poll found that 54 percent of voters said they would vote against Proposition 8, while only 40 percent said they would support it. Results of the poll were released late Wednesday; the surveys were conducted during the period Aug. 12-19.

On the broader question of whether they favor allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry, voters were evenly split, 47 percent to 47 percent.

The reason for the disparity, suggests the manager of the opposition campaign, is that some voters, while personally against the notion of same-sex marriage, do not want to take away a right that was granted earlier this year by the California Supreme Court.

"Proposition 8 eliminates marriage for same-sex couples," said Steve Smith. "I don't think Californians want to eliminate a fundamental right for their neighbors, their friends and others in their community. It's one thing to be supportive or not supportive of something, it's another to take away someone's right."

Supporters of Proposition 8 said the survey results reflect voters' reflexive response to a revised ballot title written by Attorney General Jerry Brown.

The original title, written before the initiative could be circulated for signatures last year, was "Limit on marriage." The revised title, written after the Supreme Court decision in May invalidating gender-based discrimination in marriage, says, "Eliminates the right of same-sex couples to marry."

That change, said a spokeswoman for the measure's proponents, has at least temporarily given some voters pause.

"He handed the opposition a small victory in unfairly restating the intention of the proposition," said Jennifer Kerns of Brown. "It's early in the campaign. We will let people know what Proposition 8 stands for."

The measure would amend the California Constitution to read: "Only marriage between a man and woman is valid or recognized in California."

That same language, in the form of an initiative statute, was approved by state voters in 2000, with 61 percent of voters favoring the idea. That statute was overturned by the state Supreme Court, which held that it violates the California Constitution by discriminating against same-sex couples.

As a constitutional amendment, if Proposition 8 is approved, it would effectively overturn the Supreme Court's ruling, since it was based upon the court's interpretation of the California Constitution.

The survey found voter opinion closely divided on two other high-profile ballot measures.

It found that Proposition 4, which would amend the Constitution to require that parents of girls be notified in advance before a girl could receive an abortion, is in a statistical tie, with 47 percent in favor and 44 percent opposed. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 3 percent.

The parental notification measure has twice before been on the ballot in recent years and was rejected both times.

The survey found that voters are divided and uncertain about Proposition 11, the measure that would create an independent panel to draw new legislative district lines in 2011, taking that authority away from legislators. Under the proposal, state lawmakers would continue to draw new congressional district lines.

The poll found 39 percent in support, 36 percent opposed and 25 percent undecided.

California voters also continue to favor Democrat Barack Obama in the presidential race, although Obama's level of support has dropped significantly since July. Obama leads John McCain by 9 percentage points, 48 percent to 39 percent. A month earlier, the PPIC poll showed Obama with a 15-point lead.

In other findings, Californians continue to express great pessimism about the direction of the state and heightened concern about the economy.

Two-thirds of Californians believe the state is in a moderate or serious recession, and 42 percent cited jobs and the economy as the No. 1 issue facing the state. Additionally, 34 percent of likely voters said it was the issue they would most like Obama and McCain to talk about, far outdistancing the issue of secondary concern, the war in Iraq.

Concerning the state budget stalemate, 84 percent of likely voters now say the budget situation is a "major problem" -- the highest percentage to believe that in more than four years. Consistent with three earlier PPIC polls conducted this year, 44 percent said they believe the state budget shortfall should be resolved through a mixture of spending cuts and tax increases. Another 8 percent said it should be resolved "mostly through tax increases" and 38 percent said it should be done "mostly through spending cuts."

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Copyright (c) 2008, Ventura County Star, Calif.

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